PTBA – price 2290 on 14-May 2021
PTBA is a coal (and power) company. Oldest and Most Experienced Coal Producer in Indonesia. Cyclical commodity coal company, profit margin depends on coal price, actually a cash machine, low debt.
Moat : Low cost producer (low Stripping ratio), high reserve, Low Capex (transport handle by KAI).
Coal produced around 25Mton in 2020 from 20MT in 2016. Coal sales 26MT. Coal Calori around 4500-6400 KCal/kg, mostly 5000 KCal/kg.
At the coal price around 40 USD,PTBA still makes money. If coal up to 80, PTBA will make more money. Effect would not be as huge because of DMO and the coal price in Indonesia controlled by govenment . ICE Coal price as 14-May-2021 for 6300 kcal is 100 USD.
Dividen normal time 300 IDR. Dividen 2021 for 2020 result 74 IDR.
Have enough resources for 100 years of mining 3B T of Coal, 2.77B T in Tanjung Enim.
Cash per share around 400 . ASP 2021 669k IDR; 2020: 653 kIDR ; 2019 ASP: 769kIDR.
Stripping ratio 4.4-5.1x
Three major field in Tanjung Enim : Production in Tambang Air Laya 5MT, Muara Tiga Besar 7MT, Banko Barat dan Tengah 12MT. Domestic Sales 14MT, Export 11 MT. 99kha area concession.
Port : Teluk Bayur 2.5MTpa, Kertapati 3.7MTpa, Tarahan 35MTpa
Power Plant :
- PT BPI (59.75%ownership)-, 2.1T Investment PLTU Mulut Tambang Banjarsari, 2x110MW, AR 588 B IDR, annual sales 260 B IDR?? Coal from PTBA 0.6MTpa @39USD – money losing business for PTBA;
2. HBAP (45% ownership), 2T Investment, 2x620MW, PLTU Sumsel 8 Mulut Tambang Muara Enim (COD Q1 2022)- coal consumption 3 MTpa, expected sales from HBAP/ year 1.8T IDR.
Customer : PLN for PLTU Bukit Asam, PLTU Tarahan, PT Indonesia Power for PLTU Suralaya, Trafigura, Pusri
Supplier: PT KAI (4.5 T, 26% of Rev) cost 485 IDR/ton/km (Tanjung Enim -Tarahan), 646/ton/km (Tanjung Enim – Kertapati), Pama Persada (2.5T, 14% of Rev)
Growth Potential:
a. PLTU Mulut tambang -COD Q1 2022-sales 3MT, rev 1.8T IDR/year, PLTS Soetta, PLTS Ombilin,
b. Coal to Gas -DME COD Q2 2024 est 6MTon, 4T IDR;
c. Increase sales from train rail capacity expansion to 60 MT in 2025 (bottle neck for production), Tanjung Enim Kertapati increase from 5MTpa to 7MTpa COD in Q3 2021, in 2020 5MT transported. Tanjung Enim Tarahan – increase from 20 MTpa to 25MTpa COD Q3 2021, 2020 18MT transported. Extra 7MTon in 2022 = 4.2T IDR. New railway Tanjung Enim to Kramasan 20MTpa COD Q1 2024, Tanjung Enim -Tarahan2 capacity 20MTpa COD Q2 2025.
d. Solar panel expansion, 1 Ha = 1 MW, PTBA have 99kha 90 GW.
Target 2021: 29 MT in production, 30.7 MT in sales. Q1 2021 Sales 6.8 MTon, production 5.5 MTon – low due to bad weather. Rev Q1 2021 4T IDR, Railway capacity: 30MTPa, railway Volume 28.2MT, stripping ratio 5.1. Est ASP 0.669 M/ton Rev 2021 Estimate around 19-23T IDR
Target 2022: 39MT in production, HBAP 3MT, Tanjung Enim Kertapati 2MT, Tanjung Enim Tarahan 5MT
Target 2023: 40 MT increase efficiency
Target 2024: 50 MT (Tanjung Enim Kramasan start – up to 20MT)
Target 2025: 60 MT (Tanjung Enim Tarahan 2 start- up to 20MT), 6MT DME
Estimated PTBA Coal Production up to 2028
Coal price has increase but PTBA share price still about the same as last year price, with all this development and expected grow in production. It does not make sense to have PTBA price at 2290. TP 3500.
Disclaimer on: I have PTBA in my portfolio. This opinion might be bias, do your own research.